Four Scenarios

Millenium Ecosystem Assessment

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) was called for by the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2000. Initiated in 2001, the objective of the MA was to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and the scientific basis for action needed to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of those systems and their contribution to human well-being. The MA has involved the work of more than 1,360 experts worldwide. Their findings, contained in five technical volumes and six synthesis reports, provide a state-of-the-art scientific appraisal of the condition and trends in the world’s ecosystems and the services they provide (such as clean water, food, forest products, flood control, and natural resources) and the options to restore, conserve or enhance the sustainable use of ecosystems.

The MA developed four global scenarios to explore plausible futures for ecosystems and human well-being. The scenarios were developed based on interviews with leaders in NGOs, governments, and business on five continents, on scenario literature, and on policy documents addressing linkages between ecosystem change and human well-being, with a focus on conditions in 2050, although they include some information through the end of the century. They explored two global development paths, one in which the world becomes increasingly globalized and the other in which it becomes increasingly regionalized, as well as two different approaches to ecosystem management, one in which actions are reactive and most problems are addressed only after they become obvious and the other in which ecosystem management is proactive and policies deliberately seek to maintain ecosystem services for the long term.

—To read entire KJ article, download as PDF file (133KB)
Original document here, excellent summary source here (Greenfacts)

Text and diagram reprinted with permission from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005.
Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC

www.millenniumassessment.org

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