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WHAT IF?
Review by Ken Rodgers, from KJ #31

The Yomiuri Shimbun is Japan's largest newspaper, guardian modulator of Japanese conservative harmonics. When fast-breeder reactor Monju came within millimeters of unprecedented catastrophe December 8th last year (1995), it took the Yomiuri 16 days to come up with an editorial chiding the operating company - not for criminal negligence and unpreparedness, but for lacking "the ability to handle a crisis properly."

Chronicle: the Great Hanshin Earthquake*, edited by the Yomiuri Shimbun (pub. IBH Communications), and released around the first anniversary of last year's quake, may appear - at first glance -a predictable attempt to impose Japanese order over unruly Nature, to eulogize Kobe's selfless endurance of an unavoidable natural disaster. But hey - look again! Coordinating editor Saito Takashi, an investigative crime reporter from way back, explores in compelling narrative and objective detail just what happens when the unleashed force of nature meets the force of circumstance. A hundred feature articles, culled from first-hand reports and painstaking follow-up, well-documented with photos, provide a chilling account of the perils of complacency, in which a sub-element of farce counterpoints the tragedy:

• Minutes after the 5:46 a.m. quake, surrounded by collapsed buildings and trapped victims, TV personality Hazama Kempei tries to borrow a small excavator; the owner says: "You go driving a bulldozer without a licence and injure people by mistake, you could be held liable for it later. I don't think you should do it."

• By 9 a.m. the president of Daiei supermarket chain has secured two helicopters, eight water tankers, nearly 1,000 trucks, and a 9,800-ton ferry for relief supply. It takes five days for the SDF and Hyogo Prefecture to decide who will pay for urgently needed rescue equipment, before it can even be ordered, let alone delivered. Meanwhile, 3,333 troops dig practically bare-handed. Hundreds of trapped survivors die in the ruins.

• Experienced overseas medical teams rush to Kobe, where they are told that they cannot treat the injured without Japanese medical licences. The Health and Welfare Ministry establishes an emergency HQ in the devastated city - one week after the quake.

• The 19-person initial government fact-finding mission to Kobe ignores hungry survivors on streets; scurries into its hotel to eat 5000-yen Kobe Steak dinners. In Kasumigaseki, Tokyo, bureaucrats respond to overseas aid offers saying "We don't know if it's needed" - and Kobe City and Hyogo Prefecture are not informed. On the third day, the Prime Minister appears in Kobe to show his concern. He visits a hospital for 10 minutes, a refugee shelter for 6 minutes.

One section, "Seismologists' Predictions Come to Nothing," reveals that experts had concluded over decades of study that a major quake in the Kobe area was inevitable. The city disregarded their explicit warnings, responding that "the vast amount of money required to implement anti-earthquake measures would burden generations to come."

Chaos rules.

The Great Hanshin Earthquake, like the Monju sodium leak, is a powerful reminder that far from having all the answers, we don't even have all the essential questions down. The first of these remains "What if...?"


(* Unfortunately space limitations [in the print issue of #31] prevented inclusion of an ominous quote from the final paragraph of this editorial, as printed in translation in the Daily Yomiuri Dec. 25th: "In order for major technology to take root and become safer, it is necessary to increase the opportunities for learning from failures.")

 

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